Thursday, January 7, 2010

1/7 Watchlist: Yen signal; AAPL, CVS, ITUB on the scan

  • Blue chips, Treasury long bonds stagnate. 
  • USD/JPY signals. 
  • Junk bonds up a bit.
  • AAPL, CVS, ITUB on the scan.
    No new signals on any indicator, and prices are quite stable, except for corporate junk bonds (JNK) which, as noted in the Morningline, continues to rise for the fourth day.

    The yen per dollar currency pair (USD/JPY) continues to show the pps bull signal that appeared this morning. The chart is uptrending, with the steep pullbacks, from early December. For me, it's not a trade at this point. The yen peaked above the top set on Dec. 31, and promptly pulled back to the resistance point. I would consider going long the yen if the price closed around 93.4 or higher. Also, the macd, while in bull territory, is declining toward the zero line, and the stochastic has moved below the 80 line.

    Among my holdings, those with options expiring in January were handled in my options expiry post. Among the Februaries, no new signals. MRVL is down for the day by nearly 3% but remains above my stop/loss point.

    Here's what's interesting among the high-volume . . .

    . . . exchange traded funds:
    • XHB, the homebuilders etf, spiked up by 4.5% after showing pps and stochastic bull signals yesterday, with the macd in bull mode. Just saying, would have been nice. I rejected the signal yesterday because of the price trend; shares have been trading in a range since August. So this was a major breakout.
    . . . corporate shares:
    • AAPL has declined for two days on a pps bear signal and with the stochastic moving below the 80-line. I can look at this as a pullback after a breakout above resistance. With AAPL so prone to news surprises, and with the tablet market being fairly heated, I hate to bet against the company. So I'm not going to take a bear trade.
    • CVS peaked above near-term resistance on the third day after a pps bull signal, with the macd in bull mode but the stochastic dipping below the 80-line. CVS gapped down hugely on Nov. 4 following earnings, and the current rise is pointing towards the next earnings release, on Feb. 18, right in line with options expiry. The trend counts as slightly upward since the gap.
    • ITUB is showing a pps bear flag with the macd and stochastic in decline (although still in bull mode). This stock has been range bound since November, between about 19 or 20 and 24, and I think the only way I would consider it would be as an iron condor. (Which really can't be done with the limited strike prices available. Bummer.)

    Topics:high-yield corporate junk bonds, gold, precious metals, Marvell Technology, homebuilders, Apple Computing, macintosh, CVS Pharmacies, Itau Unibanco Holding, banking, Brazil, dollar, forex, yen.

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