Friday, April 16, 2010

Sea Change

It happens in the markets, from time to time, that a single day marks a sea change. But while some stocks get washed away -- sorry, bankers and financiers -- others escape the tide and come away high and dry.

So, how are my holdings faring, while there is still time to trade today?

Dividend plays, all shares:

AOD. Showing a pps bear signal on a price decline that pulled back into range. The monthly ex-dividend date is next week, on April 22. Given the pullback, I'll hold and see if I can make that date.

JNK. A price pullback but within range, bull signals remain. Next monthly ex-dividend date is May 1.

NLY. A large price pullback (it's a real estate company) and a new low on the three-month chart. It pays a quarterly dividend, so I'll continue to hold it. I can afford to take the long-term view.

April options:

One position left, MCO, with a $29 strike covered call. The stock is trading at $27.88, so the call option will expire and I'll keep the stock, plus the premium I got when I sold the option. A good outcome.

May options:

BBY, a bull play. The price has paused in its rise. Sigs are bullish.

EEM, a bear play. A very nice decline with an additonal bear signal weighing in.

GE, a bull play. The price declined, and then pulled back again, bouncing off of the 20-day moving average on an earnings announcement that beat Street estimates. Go figure. I'll hold for now. My decision would be changed if the price pierced the ma20, or if the signals turned bearish.

Zombie shares:

PALM is trading slightly higher today. I added shares to my position after an analyst forecast a buyout at $10 to $14 per share. The additional shares bring my basis to $8.70 ($12.63 debit for the original shares, plus an 83¢ credit for the covered call, and a $5.58 debit for today's shares).

Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic


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