Wednesday, April 21, 2010

CIEN Watch

Ciena Corp. (CIEN) is one of those fine cases where, like the cannon at Waterloo, the signal proceeds the news.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
CIEN $17.66

Yesterday CIEN showed a new bear signal on the parabolic sar, but the price showed a healthy rise on a large volume spike. Today, prices are dropping back on mixed analyst comment: One says buy on a pullback, one says sell, another raises the target price to $24.

You pay your money, you take your choice.

The rise yesterday, to a high of $18.48, fell 1.4% short of the highest high on the three-month daily chart, $18.75, set on April 15. And yesterday's low was lower than the prior near-term low.

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So CIEN is in a downtrend, by the classic definition: lower high, lower low. In order to return to an uptrend, the stock would need to set a high intra-day above $18.48 and a low above $17.23.

A high lower than $18.48 and a low above $17.23 would suggest a symmetrical triangle.

On a decline, the price doesn't hit congestion until the $16.30 level, suggesting about 6% easy potential. Upside congestion runs from about $17.50 to $19. So the slipper slide is the easier course for prices than is the upward slog.

This signal is followed in the daily Watchlist, which is posted beginning around 2:45 p.m. Eastern. Look for it at www.timbovee.com.

Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.


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