Friday, April 23, 2010

FNM Watch

Fannie Mae (FNM) continues to trace a sideways pattern within the confines of a developing symettrical triangle, with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level acting as a somewhat porous floor for its pacing.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
FNM $1.26

Earnings are due to be released after the end of trading on May 6, less than two weeks away. FNM's last earnings announcement caused barely a blip on the chart.

Technically, FNM remains in bull phase on the parabolic sar and Person's Proprietary Signal.

The macd has been declining toward the zero line for six trading days, and the stochastic remains neutral.

Barring news or policy surprises, the best possibility for movement lay in the price pattern. A symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern, in this case, an upward continuation.

The base of the triangle covered two days and 26¢. By the book, a breakout at the apex would imply a rise of that amount.

There's always some ambiguity in drawing trendlines, but a strict rendition gives an apex of $1.28, plus or minus a bit, and a potential rise up to $1.54. That's 20%, a nice move in anyone's book.

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This signal will be followed in the daily Watchlist, which is posted beginning around 2:45 p.m. Eastern. Look for it at www.timbovee.com.

Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.


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