FNM Watch

Fannie Mae (FNM) is in its second straight up-day but has so far fallen short of the $1.36 high set on Tuesday.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
FNM $1.33

Fannie has shown extreme volatility this week, rising 23.6% low to high. The movement hasn't been support by any news reports, suggesting that it's genesis is sheer speculation and manipulation.

This much can be said:

The 50% Fibonacci retracement level, $1.21, appears to be acting as a point of near-term support.

The next highest Fibonacci level is 38.2%, or $1.43. In the normal behavior of markets, this would be a resistance level.

The technical signals are in full bull phase.

Volume on Wednesday was only half that of Tuesday's, suggesting waning trader interest and difficulty in supporting an uptrend.

By the book, the trend cannot be counted as rising until $1.36 is exceeded.

Fannie reports earnings on May 6, suggesting heightened volatility between now and then.

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For those interested in the prediction game, FNM is an invitation to failure. It is a volatile stock, and because it's management has been taken over by the federal government, it's a political stock.

Moreover, it is a blue chip that has sunk to the level of a penny stock, which makes it very prone to manipulation.

FNM is followed in the daily Watchlist, which is posted beginning around 2:45 p.m. Eastern. Look for it at www.timbovee.com.

Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic

About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

• trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
• adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
• psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
• sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.

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