I found a lot of signals today that are counter the prevailing trend, which is generally a deal killer for me. However, there are some ambiguities ...
One is, what's a prevailing trend? My method is to look at a three-month daily chart, and then wing it. If it looks like an up-trend, that's good enough for me.
I confirm that with a reading of 30 or above on the average directional index. Anything below that, it's not really trend. (I have been known to fudge the adx if the chart looks strongly trending.)
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A second ambiguity is determining when a new trend begins. The way I do it is to consider a trend to consist of a higher high and higher low (for an up-trned), or a lower low and lower high (for a downtrend). So I need at least three days of prices to be able to say that a new trend has begun.
Moreover, a new trend needs to pierce some resistance in its direction of travel before I find it to be convincing.
- AGAS, bull, news of an offering being priced
- AMR, bear, news of massive flight cancellations in Europe, earnings close (4/21)
- CHK, bear, marginal adx (20), earnings (5/3)
- DRYS, bear, marginal adx (25), earnings (4/29)
- EBAY, bear, marginal adx (23), EARNINGS (4/21)
- EWT, bear, marginal adx (20)
- IWM, bear, counter-trend, barely marginal adx (29); if it weren't counter-trend I would consider this
- JASO, bear, analyst upgrade, counter-trend, earnings (5/19)
- LLY, bear, earnings announcement, counter-trend, marginal adx (24)
- MMR, bear, earnings announcement
- PMI, bear, counter-trend, earnings (5/10)
- QQQQ, bear, counter-trend
- SYMC, bear, low adx (12), earnings (5/5)
- TSM, bear, low adx (16), earnings (4/29)
- WFR, bear, counter-trend, earnings (4/29)
- WFT, bear, low adx (17), earnings (4/20)
- XLY, bear, counter-trend
- XRT, bear, counter-trend
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