5/5 Top Prospects

Thirteen breakouts beyond the 55-day price channel. (Is that bad luck? Same as Friday the 13th?)

sym	phase	adx	bday	blevel	stop	atr	atr%
ACI		13	may5	$31.39	$32.52	1.13	3.6%
APC		18	may5	$73.35	$75.70	2.35	3.2%
CHK*		18	may5	$30.11	$31.12	1.01	3.4%
DBB+		18	may5	$23.31	$23.78	0.47	2.0%
EGPT+		39	may5	$14.51	$14.78	0.27	1.9%
GNW		21	may5	$11.78	$12.10	0.32	2.7%
HES		18	may5	$76.21	$78.66	2.38	3.1%
MON		21	may5	$64.29	$65.69	1.40	2.2%
MS*		22	may5	$25.25	$25.88	0.63	2.5%
RSX+*		15	may5	$37.95	$38.88	0.93	2.5%
TLT+*		18	may5	$94.94	$94.15	0.79	0.8%
VRSN		13	may5	$34.20	$35.00	0.80	2.3%
XLNX		30	may5	$35.42	$34.61	0.81	2.3%

Exchange-traded funds are marked with a plus sign (+) after the ticker symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

Silver (SLV) moved below the 20-day price channel, putting the former wunderkid of metal speculations in neutral phase.

The VRSN breakdown below the 55-day price channel, into bear phase, was triggered by a huge dividend -- $2.75 for the quarter on a $35 stock. High-div issues don’t behave the same as their low- or no-div cousins. So, even though its a breakdown, it’s certainly not a cap-gains play for me.

A quick note on my own accounts: I played TLT with options on its ultra, short evil twin TBT. Greater liquidity, more volatility -- what’s not to like. Just as I entered with a TLT signal rather than one on TBT, I shall exit on conditional stop/loss calculated on TLT.


Key

• phase: Green for a bull-phase breakout, red for a bear phase.
• adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 30 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 30, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, purple for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
• bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
• blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
• bstop: The stop/loss price calculated on breakout days as the 14-day average true range below the breakout-day low for a bull phase and above thre breakout-day high for a bear phase.
• atr: The 14-day average true range, in the same currency as the price.
• atr%: The average true range as a percentage of the breakout level, an indicator of volatility that is comparable for all potential trades.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.