Thursday, June 3, 2010

ORCL Watch

The database software company Oracle Corp. (ORCL) has moved to bull phase on the macd as it recovers from a 19.1% decline from mid-April to late May.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
ORCL $22.78
At 1:38 p.m. Eastern

It is the first foray into macd bullishness since April 9.

The signal is counter to the near-term trend, which was a slide from $26.63 on April 13 down to $21.55 on May 21.

On the broader chart, ORCL has behaved differently than most blue-chip stocks. True, the price struggled and eventually fell during the collapse of capitalist credit in 2009/10 -- just like everyone else, but the recovery was stunning, reaching 17% above the collapse high.

The most recent decline has taken that rise back, and the price now is in the zone of sideways sloshing that marked ORCL prior to its 2008 decline.

ORCL is moving toward it's earnings announcement, afer the clos eon June 24, so expect volatility as analysts weight in pre-earns.

Reversal Levels
  • $25.13, +10.3%
  • $24.70, +8.4%
  • $22.87, +0.4%
  • $22.78 <== You are here.
  • $21.90, -3.9%
I see ORCL as a reasonable short-term play on the bull side. I don't see it as a long-term position.


The Great Reflation: How Investors Can Profit From the New World of Money
OK. The credit bubble burst. Housing, burst. Shockwaves reverberated. Markets collapsed. What lies ahead as we remerge from the wreckage.


Abbreviations:
  • psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
  • adx - Average Directional Index
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
  • ma20 - 20-day moving average
  • macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
  • sto - Fast Stochastic
About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.
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Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment. No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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