F Watch: Ford moves to bear phase

Ford Motor Co. (F) moved to bear phase on the macd after 18 trading days on the bull side. The slide below the macd zero line was miniscule, so as is the way with tech signals, it might well reverse intraday.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto trend
F $10.80

F hit a swing high of $14.57 on April 26 and had stairstepped down to $10.17 a month later.

The April high was the second serious attempt to retrace the long decline from the 1999 high of $38.83, the top point on the 20-year chart.

However, it failed to set a higher high than the last serious retest in 2003, so long-term analysis must consider the present decline to be a continuation of that 11-year downtrend. (You know it's a downtrend when a member of what used to be the Big Three U.S. automakers ends up listed by Russell as a mid-cap stock. So sad.)

In the current recession, F hit a low of $1.01 in November 2008, and from their rose in two steps to the April high. The interim swing high on the way up was $8.86, and any break below that would signify a mid-term downtrend in line with the larger trend.

Even shorter term, a break below $10.17 would indicate a continued downtrend. A bounce from that level would show continuation of a sideways movement.

Reversal Levels

• $12.87, +19.2%
• $11.77, +9.0%
• $10.80 <== You are here.
• $10.17, -5.8%

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment. No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Abbreviations:

• psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
• adx - Average Directional Index
• pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
• ma20 - 20-day moving average
• macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
• sto - Fast Stochastic

About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

• trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
• adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
• psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
• sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.