Friday, May 21, 2010

5/21 Forex: EUR/USD

The euro-dollar currency pair (EUR/USD) switched to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal today.

The euro has been rising against the dollar for three days following an steep decline that pushed it well below the lower Person's Pivot, and it is still trading below the pivot today.

The pair closed above the pps moving averages on Thursday, and today opened well above the averages, which counts as confirmation.

Theoretical entry would be at US$1.2490, just above this morning's price when the broader markets opened.

The lower pivot is at US$1.2789, and the upper is at US$1.3618.

The EUR/USD moved into bear phase on April 16, and ws confirmed the next day with a with a theoretical entry of about US$1.3460.

A cautious rule-based trader would have exited when the lower pivot was pierced sharply on May 6, and then tested with a sharp downward pullback on May 7, with an exit of around US$1.2640, for a profit of around 6%.

A more risk-prone trader would have exited when the price closed above one of the moving averages, on May 19, at around US$1.2415, for a profit of around 7.8%.

Either way, it's a nice haul.

I've got to say that the euro has been so prone to news surprises and policy surprises that it makes me very nervous, and I'm reluctant to place much reliance on technical analysis.

TA is next to useless in the face of broad panics driven by political maneuvering, such as that between Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany and President Nicolas Sarkozy in France over the Greek bailout.

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