Monday, May 17, 2010

5/17 Forex: AUD/NZD

The Australian dollar/New Zealand dollar currency pair (AUD/NZD) has switched to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal.

The price today dropped below and then moved above the lower Person's pivot at NZ$1.2518.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
AUD/NZD NZ$1.2555
At 10:03 a.m. Eastern

The forex pair had shown a bull signal on Friday, which closed out the Watchlist signal. As is not uncommon with the Person's signal, the signal disappeared and now has reappeared.


By the book, a ghost signal doesn't count. In my book, a ghost followed by a second signal that may or may not be a ghost is good enough for me.

So I'm taking today's signal as an entry point for the Watchlist, at NZ$1.2555, the price as of this posting, all the more so because the price intra-day dropped to 0.6% below the lower pivot, and then bounced back, treating that pivot level as support. The current price is 0.3% above the pivot.

AUD/NZD is a strongly trending pair, with an average directional index of 39. However, that was established in the recent decline, and the current signal reversal is counter-trend.

For a stock, that would disallow the signal by my rules. In the case of forex, for study purposes, I don't consider the trend or lack of it, and just play the price levels and the Person's tools.

Reversal Levels
  • NZ$1.3231, +5.4%
  • NZ$1.3116, +4.5%
  • NZ$1.2555 <== You are here.
  • NZ$1.2356, -1.6%

The Investor's Guide to Active Asset Allocation: Using Technical Analysis and ETFs to Trade the Markets
Martin Pring's detailed deconstruction of the economic cycle: What sorts stocks to look for at each stage of the recovery. A masterful analysis.


Abbreviations: psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse adx - Average Directional Index pps - Person's Proprietary Signal ma20 - 20-day moving average macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence mfi - Money Flow Index sto - Fast Stochastic About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.
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