SPY, which tracks the blue chips, remains well above the 12-month moving average on the decade chart. Shares are trading at around $109, and the moving average is at $100 and pointing up.
In my year-end review last December, I proposed a method for managing 401(k)'s parked in mutual funds that track the S&P 500. The idea was to avoid the major downturns while enjoying the major rises.
Common Sense on Mutual Funds: Fully Updated 10th Anniversary Edition
By the guy who invented index funds.
On a chart with one bar per month, if the bar closes above the 12-month moving average, then the money is in stocks. If the bar closes below the moving average, then the money is in cash (a money market fund).
This month still has one more trading day to go, but as long as SPY stays above $100 or so, then the signal is still to stay in stocks.
Of course, if I look at the chart and decide the direction is decidedly down toward the moving average, there's no rule that forbids me from switching to cash before the moving average is penetrated, just to play it safe.
I don't know how else to contact you - for some reason my poetry link is on your site with my full name - I want it removed immediately.
ReplyDeleteHere's the link - please remove this as soon as possible. I don't want my name out there.
http://www.daypoems.net/nodes/4631.html
Thank you.
No problem, dark. I'll do it today.
ReplyDeleteYou realize that the name and other information came from DMOZ, and so your name will show up places unless you ask DMOZ to remove the listing. www.dmoz.org
By the way, in the left-hand column, down toward the bottom, there's a graphic with an email address on it. You can reach me privately in that way.
ReplyDelete