Monday, November 30, 2009

11/30 Morningline

My problem position, a bear call spread on the etf GLD, which tracks the metal gold, has opened well below the upper Bollinger band, and the money flow index has once again fallen decisively below the overbought line. The technicals say this stock is in bear mode, but GLD has proven quirky of late, and with 19 days until the options expire, it will require close watching.

My other holding, UNG, is at 9.39. A covered call on the position limits my price to 9.00, so the position is profitable by 0.38, but at the cost of giving up 0.27 in profit. I'm still ahead of the game.

Indicators (pps/mfi(rsi) analysis):
  • Bear mode: SPY (blue chips) and VIX (fear index) both show price movements counter to the pps indicator
  • Bull mode: TLT (Treasury long bonds), GLD (gold), EUR/USD (Dollars per Euro) and USD/JPY (Yen per Dollar). It's a somewhat unusual for the Euro and the Yen currency pairs to be in the same mode, since they are constructed as opposites. Also, the USD/JPY is showing a strong price divergence from the pps indicator.
So, today: Watching GLD like a hawk, and scanning for new entries near the end of the trading day.

No comments:

Post a Comment