9/13 Forex Envelopes

I've scanned both the hourly and the weekly charts for the 54 currency pairs allowed 20% margin under United States rules, using the breakout envelope (Joe Ross-based) techniques discussed in two recent postings: "Smackdown: Joe Ross vs. the Turtles" and "Defining Breakout Envelopes".


Hourly Chart

sym	high	low	factor	upper	lower	date	time
AUD/JPY	80.11900	79.19600	0.21783	80.33683	78.97817	09-12	7:00
EUR/AUD	1.32340	1.31570	0.00182	1.32522	1.31388	09-12	5:00
EUR/CAD	1.36897	1.35164	0.00409	1.37306	1.34755	09-12	5:00
EUR/GBP	0.86367	0.85812	0.00131	0.86498	0.85681	09-12	6:00
EUR/NZD	1.66850	1.65510	0.00316	1.67166	1.65194	09-11	19:00
EUR/USD	1.36938	1.35553	0.00327	1.37265	1.35226	09-12	6:00
GBP/DKK	8.67630	8.63020	0.01088	8.68718	8.61932	09-12	11:00
NZD/CAD	0.82126	0.81346	0.00184	0.82310	0.81162	09-12	5:00
NZD/DKK	4.47730	4.46310	0.00335	4.48065	4.45975	09-11	19:00
USD/DKK	5.49240	5.43700	0.01307	5.50547	5.42393	09-12	6:00

Daily Chart

sym	high	low	factor	upper	lower	date
EUR/AUD	1.42601	1.29867	0.03005	1.45606	1.26862	08-09-11
EUR/CAD	1.42006	1.34917	0.01673	1.43679	1.33244	08-23-11
NZD/CAD	0.83689	0.79527	0.00982	0.84671	0.78545	08-09-11
NZD/USD	0.8572	0.81161	0.01076	0.86796	0.80085	08-31-11
SEK/JPY	12.541	11.5835	0.22597	12.76697	11.35753	07-22-11
USD/CAD	0.98973	0.94057	0.01160	1.00133	0.92897	06-16-11

The hourly charts present quite well-defined sideways trends, which makes it easy to set up trades. The daily charts -- not so much. Nearly all of the items listed are a bit muddy one way or the other under the rules I outlined in "Defining Breakout Envelopes".

For currencies, of course, intraday trading is entirely feasible, because of the high leverage available.

Stocks and options have much lower leverage. My next task will be to test those potential trades on an hourly or half-hourly chart and see what they look like.