10/1 Forex

• New monthly pivot points on all charts.
• Cable shows bear phase against the U.S. dollar (GBP/USD).
• Whither the dollar? Down, baby, down!

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.37		US$1.35 sep13	US$1.40	US$1.30
USD/JPY¥83		¥85.08 sep22	¥85	¥82
GBP/USD US$1.58		US$1.57 sep30	US$1.60	US$1.54
EUR/JPY ¥115		¥112.22 sep14	¥117	¥108
USD/CAD C$1.02		C$1.03 sep24	C$1.06	C$1.02
USD/MXN M$12.53		M$13.07 sep2	M$13.06	M$12.28

One odd characteristic that John Person built into his pivots is that they reset on the first day of each month, rather than reseting continually in a trailing month fashion.

The argument for resetting based on the calendar is that the first of each month is a meaningful milestone in any economy, be it that of the European Union or personal economy of the young man who flips burgers at my neighborhood McDonald's. Money tends to flow on a monthly cycle. Bills and rent come due every month. Government economic stats are released each month.

So perhaps Mr. Person is not as quirky as he might seem at first glance.

The GBP/USD bear phase kicked in Thursday and has been followed today by a sharp rise of 1%. I'm not sure that it's a signal to be taken seriously, given the whimsical whippiness of the two days' trading.

The prior bull phase lasted 12 U.S. market days carried the price up 2.3%.

The overarching theme of these charts is the unremitting weakness of the dollar. It's enough to turn a trader into a raving paranoid conspiracy theorist.

The dollar is in bear phase against the euro, Japanese yen and even the Mexican peso. On the indicators charts, the dollar is in bear phase against crude oil and gold, both key stores of value that behave like money (although it is difficult to put a barrel of crude in your wallet).

There are many people stuffing my mailbox in recent months, fear-mongering about the danger that the dollar will be abandoned as the world's reserve currency. But honestly, what could replace it? The ruble? The yuan?? Monopoly money???

The analysis uses the daily Person's Proprietary Signal, developed by John Person, and the monthly Person's Pivot, which he also developed.

These are black box signals -- the "proprietary" means that Mr. Person knows how they work under the hood, and I don't. But they have shown a fair degree of success in identifying good entry and exit points, and I find them useful.

On the glance, "pps open" means the price at the start of trading in the United States on the day the signal appeared.

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.


No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.