Sunday, December 4, 2016

The Week Ahead: International trade

The week after the monthly jobs report is always a slow one in economics. There is but one major economics report coming up this week: International trade, on Tiuesday at 8:30 a.m.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers' new ordrs for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

The Rise and Fall of American Growth
by Robert J. Gordon

Events arranged by day:

Monday: Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m.

Tuesday: Factory orders at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: Job openings and labor turnover report at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m.

Thursday:  the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Employment at 8:30 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.83%, up two basis points from a week earlier.

Treasury Debt

  • 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday
  • 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thuresday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
  • 3-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • 30-year: Announcement Thursday 11 a.m.
  • None.

The Fed glitterati are thin ont he ground this week, with less than a handfull taking to podium, all on Monday. They are two Federal Open Market Committee members, New York Fed Pres. William Dudley and St. Louis Fed Gov. James Bullard, and one FOMC alternate,
Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans.


The business changes. The technology changes. The team changes. The team members change. The problem isn't change, per se, because change is going to happen; the problem, rather, is the inability to cope with change when it comes.

--Kent Beck, Extreme Programming Explained: Embrace Change (2000)

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Dec. 4, 2016


Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.


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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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