The Federal Open Market Committee meets for two days, ending on Wednesday with an announcement of monetary policy on Wednesday at 2 p.m.
Other reports with potential impact: New home sales on Monday at 10 a.m., durable goods orders on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., international trade in goods on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. and personal income and outlays on Friday at 8:30 a.m.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):
The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.
The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.
The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.
The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, at 10 a.m. Friday.
by Anna Coulling |
Events arranged by day:
Monday: New home sales at 10 a.. and the Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing survey of conditions in Texas at 10:30 a.m.
Tuesday: Durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m., the S&P Case-Shiller home price index with data for 20 metro areas at 9 a.m. and consumer confidence at 10 a.m.
Wednesday: International trade in goods at 8:30 a.m., petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the FOMC monetary policy announcement at 2 p.m.
Thursday: GDP and jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. and the M2 money supply at 4:30 p.m.
Friday: Personal income and outlays and the employment cost index at 8:30 a.m., the chicago purchasing manages index at 9:45 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.
I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 5-year implied inflation rate based on U.S. Treasury yields, which presently stands at 1.47%, down 0.07% from a week earlier.
Treasury Debt
Bills
- 4-week: Announcement Monday 11 a.m., auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 3-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 6-month: Auction Monday 11:30 a.m., announcement Thursday 11 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 52-week: Auction Tuesday 11:30 a.m., settlement Thursday.
- 2-year: Auction Monday 1 p.m.
- 2-year floating rate: Auction Thursday 11:30 a.m.
- 5-year: Auction Tuesday 1 p.m.
- 7-year: Auction Thursday 1 p.m.
- None.
- None.
FOMC meetings, such as that ending with an announcement Wednesday at 2 p.m., often cast a veil of silence over the Fed glitterati.
So it is this week, with only a single speech on the schedule: Dallas Fed. Gov. Robert Kaplan, an FOMC alternate, on Friday.
Analytical universe
This week I shall be analyzing new trading signals from among 483 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds.
Good trading!
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 24, 2016
References
Tradecraft: Playing the odds to build winning stock market trades from options, a description of how I trade, can be read here.
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Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
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