Tuesday, July 12, 2011

7/12 Forex

Twenty-four breakouts among the 124 currency pairs I follow, three with a strong trends.

The yen is on the rise, prompting a number of breakouts to the downside (since JPY is always the counter).

Strong-Trend Breakouts
sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
CHF/CZK  
25
jul12 Kč20.693 Kč20.363 0.330 1.6%
GBP/CHF+  
33
jul12 SF1.3253 SF1.3414 0.0161 1.2%
NOK/SEK+  
29
jul12 Skr1.1881 Skr1.1780 0.0101 0.9%
Major currency pairs, which carry lower margin in the United States, are marked with a plus sign (+) after the symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

Weak-Trend Breakouts
sym phase adx bday blevel stop atr atr%
AUD/JPY+  
20
jul12 ¥84.035 ¥85.042 1.007 1.2%
CAD/JPY+  
14
jul12 ¥81.215 ¥82.235 1.020 1.3%
CZK/JPY  
16
jul12 ¥4.6315 ¥4.6972 0.0657 1.4%
DKK/PLN  
22
jul12 zł0.5385 zł0.5342 0.0043 0.8%
DKK/THB  
20
jul12 ฿5.679 ฿5.691 0.065 1.1%
EUR/HKD  
17
jul12 HK$10.8621 HK$10.9885 0.1264 1.2%
EUR/PLN  
20
jul12 zł4.0176 zł4.0502 0.0326 0.8%
EUR/THB  
20
jul11 ฿42.36 ฿42.84 0.48 1.1%
EUR/USD+  
17
jul12 US$1.3969 US$1.4135 0.0166 1.2%
GBP/PLN  
15
jul12 zł4.6285 zł4.5673 0.0612 1.3%
GBP/SEK+  
17
jul12 Skr10.5630 Skr10.4215 0.1415 1.3%
HKD/JPY  
15
jul12 ¥10.2317 ¥10.2306 0.0827 0.8%
MXN/JPY  
18
jul12 ¥6.687 ¥6.774 0.087 1.3%
NOK/JPY+  
17
jul12 ¥14.338 ¥14.574 0.236 1.7%
PLN/CZK  
16
jul12 Kč6.0275 Kč6.0760 0.0485 0.8%
SGD/JPY  
15
jul12 ¥64.409 ¥64.997 0.588 0.9%
USD/DKK+  
17
jul12 Dkr5.3368 Dkr502760 0.0608 1.1%
USD/HUF  
18
jul12 Ft193.59 Ft190.24 3.35 1.7%
USD/JPY+  
13
jul12 ¥79.558 ¥80.001 0.634 0.8%
USD/NOK+  
15
jul12 Nkr5.6289 Nkr5.5535 0.0754 1.3%
USD/TRY  
23
jul11 TL1.6466 TL1.6296 0.0170 1.0%
Major currency pairs, which carry lower margin in the United States, are marked with a plus sign (+) after the symbol. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*).

In addition, AUD/NOK is clsoe to a breakout on the bull side. Three pairs broke out but with declining average directional index readings: CHF/TRY, CHF/ZAR and THB/JPY.


Key
  • phase: Green for a bull-phase breakout, red for a bear phase.
  • adx: Average direction index location, indicating the strength, or the temperature, of the trend. Orange for 40 or greater, aqua (light blue) for 25 and up but below 40, magenta (light purple) for 20 and up but below 25, and brown for anything below 20. (Mnemonic: Orange for the overhead sun, blue for the surrounding sky, magenta for sunset on the horizon and brown for the earth.)
  • bday: Breakout day, the day the price broke through the upper or lower 55-day price line.
  • blevel: Breakout level, the price level of the line that was broken through.
  • bstop: The stop/loss price calculated on breakout days as the 14-day average true range below the breakout-day low for a bull phase and above thre breakout-day high for a bear phase.
  • atr: The 14-day average true range, in the same currency as the price.
  • atr%: The average true range as a percentage of the breakout level, an indicator of volatility that is comparable for all potential trades.

About channel analysis

Read a detailed explanation of my channel analysis method, including trading rules.


The trader’s greatest sin is inaction. Sleeper, awake! Seize the Nietzchean moment. Roll out of bed and trade.

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