Thursday, January 27, 2011

1/27 Watchlist

  • Earnings plays:
    • CRUS rises to neutral phase on large earnings surprise.
    • Go Figure! Department:
      • LRCX price drops after upside earnings surprise; weak outlook.
      • VAR price also drops after upside earnings surprise, strong forecast.
  • Other bull plays:
    • SO to neutral phase.
  • Diversification plays:
    • Russian whipsaws back to bull phase (RSX).
  • Zombies:
    • AOD to neutral phase.
Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file. My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*). Signal dates are the first day of week in which the signal appeared. Slow trade holdings are listed separately, at the ending of this posting. Earnings
phase pfeppstrend
AAPL
CHRW
CRUS
CTSH
DECK
ENTR
GOOG*
GRMN
LRCX*
TROW
TSM
VAR*
Key to earnings plays (sorted by earnings date)
symroedebt/
equity
div%ex-divearns
AAPL35.3%0.00x  jan18
GOOG20.6%0.00x  jan20
TROW21.8%0.00x1.7%dec28jan24
LRCX30.9%0.01x jan26
VAR28.4%0.03x  jan26
CRUS33.6%0.00x  jan27
TSM30.7%0.10x3.6% ?N/Ajan27
CHRW44.8%0.00x1.5%dec16feb1
ENTR21.3%0.00x  feb2
CTSH23.1%0.00x  feb9
GRMN27.0%0.00x4.9%apr13feb23
DECK27.8%0.00x  feb24
"M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.
Other bull plays
phase pfeppstrend
AROW
CVX
GE
MCO*
PAYX*
SO
Key to other bull plays
symroedebt/
equity
div%ex-divearns
AROW14.9%0.583.6%marjan19
CVX17.4%0.103.3%febjan28
GE9.8%4.2812.0%marjan21
MCO  1.5%febfeb3
PAYX34.6%0.00x4.1%jandec21
SO13.5%1.184.8%janjan26
"M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.
Diversification plays
phase pfeppstrend
EPI
EWZ
FXI
RSX
VWO
Key to diversification plays
symunderlying
EPIIndia
EWZBrazil
FXIChina
RSXRussia
VWOGlobal
Wounded birds
phase pfeppstrend
FTR
MVO
NLY
Key to wounded birds
symroedebt/
equity
div%ex-divearns
FTR3.8%1.558.0%marfeb21
MVO81.6%0.007.0%jan 
NLY8.2%6.4215.0%decjan
"M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.
Zombies
phase pfeppstrend
AOD*
FNMA*
Key to zombies
symroedebt/
equity
div%ex-divearns
AOD(fund) 11.3m%dec22n/a
FNMA    feb
"M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.
About the categories:
  • Earnings plays: I think these are likely to rise sharply on a real or anticipated earnings surprise.
  • Other bull plays: I think these are more likely to rise than fall; excludes earnings plays.
  • Bear plays: I think these are more likely to fall than rise.
  • Diversification plays: These don’t closely track the U.S. markets or are based on currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
  • Wounded birds: Stocks I find fascinating but they each have an apparently fatal flaw.
  • Zombies: These are failed leftovers from what seemed to be good ideas at the time. They stalk the Watchlist like zombies, tying up resources and frightening small children.
Table Abbreviations:
  • pfe - Location of the polarized fractal efficiency line.
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal mode.
  • trend - Trend of the polarized fractal efficiency line.
Key to the PPS/PFE tables
columncolormeaning
phase bull phase
bear phase
pfe +100 and above
+50 to below 100
0 to below +50
below 0 to above -50
-50 to above -100
below -100
pps bull confirmation
bear confirmation
trend uptrend
no trend
downtrend
More on the PFE/PPS analysis Read a detailed explanation of the analytical tools and how they’re used, including trading rules. Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment. No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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