Thursday, December 30, 2010

12/30 Watchlist

  • Earnings plays:
    • AAPL to bear phase on the macd; unconfirmed.
    • CHRW whipsaws back to bull phase on the parabolic sar; confirmed.
    • ENTR bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) ghosts away, leaving stock in confirmed bull phase.
    • INTC to pps bull phase; unconfirmed.
  • Other bull plays:
    • AROW to pps bear phase; confirmed.
    • NLY's polarized fractal efficiency (pfe) line turns down, confirming bear phase on three signals.
  • Diversification plays:
    • Brazil to bull phase on parabolic sar, macd; confirmed (EWZ)
    • China to bull phase on the macd; confirmed (FXI).
    • Emerging markets to bull phase on the macd; confirmed (VWO).
  • Zombies:
    • FNMA to bear phase on the parabolic sar; unconfirmed.

Below, earnings plays, other bull plays, bear plays, diversification plays and the futures file.

My holdings are marked with an asterisk (*). Signal dates are the first day of week in which the signal appeared. Slow trade holdings are listed separately, at the ending of this posting.

Earnings plays
ha-trendppspsarmacd pfe trendpfe loc ma20ma50ma200
AAPL
CHRW
ENTR
INTC
LRCX
NKE*
PAYX*
TROW
VAR


Key to earnings plays
(sorted by earnings date)
symroedebt/
equity
div%ex-divearns
NKE20.8%0.06x1.4%feb2dec21
PAYX34.6%0.00x4.1%jandec21
INTC24.3%0.05x3.3%feb3jan13
AAPL35.3%0.00x  jan24
LRCX30.9%0.01x jan24
TROW21.8%0.00x1.7%dec28jan24
VAR28.4%0.03x  jan26
CHRW44.8%0.00x1.5%dec16jan31
ENTR21.3%0.00x  jan31
"M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.


Other bull plays
ha-trendppspsarmacd pfe trendpfe loc ma20ma50ma200
AROW
CVX
D
EPD
FTR
MVO*
NLY
SO


Key to other bull plays
symroedebt/
equity
div%ex-divearns
AROW14.9%0.58x3.6%marjan17
CVX17.4%0.10x3.3%febjan28
D22.6%1.37x4.2%febjan24
EPD15.0%1.23x5.7%janjan
FTR3.8%1.55x8.0%marfeb21
MVO81.6%0.00x7.0%jan 
NLY8.2%6.42x15.0%decjan
SO13.5%1.18x4.8%janjan24
"M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.


Bear plays
None.

Diversification plays
EPI
EWZ
FXI
RSX
VWO


Key to diversification plays
symunderlying
EPIIndia
EWZBrazil
FXIChina
RSXRussia
VWOEmerging Markets


Zombies
AOD*
FNMA*
MCO*


Key to zombies
symroedebt/
equity
div%ex-divearns
AOD(fund) 11.3m%dec22n/a
FNMA    feb
MCO  1.5%febfeb4
"M" following the div% means that dividends are paid monthly, "A" means annual payments, and no letter means quarterly payments.


Futures File

Potential earnings plays
symearnings
CTSHfeb7
CMGfeb9
TQNTfeb9
PCLNfeb14
AVGOfeb21
URBNfeb28
GESmar14
LULUmar


Slow Trade Positions
  • Bull: SPY, PAYX.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

The stocks and exchange-traded funds on my Watchlists are instruments that I’m watching. Listing on a Watchlist does not imply that I own the issue.

Abbreviations:
  • h-a trend - Heikin-Ashi trend.
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal.
  • pfe trend - Trend of the polarized fractal efficiency line.
  • pfe loc - Location of the polarized fractal efficiency line.
  • psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse

  • ma20 - 20-day moving average

  • ma50 - 50-day moving average

  • ma200 - 200-day moving average

  • macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence

About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
  • Signal Section:
    • h-a trend: green for two up candles, red for two down candles, yellow for one of either.
    • pps, psar, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear.
  • Confirmation Section:
    • pfe trend: green for uptrending, red for downtrending, yellow for no trend.
    • pfe loc: location of the pfe - green for above 50, light green for zero to 50, orange for below zero to -50, red for below -50.
  • Environment Section:
    • ma20, ma50, ma200: green for above the average, red for below the average.
About the categories:
  • Earnings plays: I think these are likely to rise sharply on a real or anticipated earnings surprise.
  • Other bull plays: I think these are more likely to rise than fall; excludes earnings plays.
  • Bear plays: I think these are more likely to fall than rise.
  • Diversification plays: These don’t closely track the U.S. markets or are based on currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
  • Zombies: These are failed leftovers from what seemed to be good ideas at the time. They stalk the Watchlist like zombies, tying up resources and frightening small children.

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