Wednesday, August 25, 2010

8/25 Morningline

  • Gold in a major whipsaw (GLD).
  • Euro gets a bull signal (barely) against the dollar (EUR/USD).
  • Dollar shows a bull signal against the yen (USD/JPY).

Stocks and Rates
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
zone
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

Oil and Gold
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
zone
USO
GLD

GLD showed bear phase for one day on the parabolic sar before switching back to bull phase today. The whipsaw came as the price opened 0.5% below the prior day's and then rose 1.8% intraday. This was enough to mightily confused the psar, which yesterday picked up on the lower open and today picked up on the higher close.

A classic head fake.

Global
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
zone
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
EEM

The fast stochastic on the EUR/USD pair is barely peeking above the 20-line. It's a bull signal, for sure, butone that could be negated if the price pulls back a bit more.

The USD/JPY fast stochastic is slightly stronger, although not by much. It runs contrary to yesterday's bear signals on the less sensitive technicals and so may also prove to be ephemeral.

Indicator Exchange-Traded Fund Symbols:
EEM - emerging markets
EUR/USD - euro/dollar currency pair
GLD - gold
JNK - high-yield corporate bonds
QQQQ - Nasdaq 100 index
SPY - S&P 500 index
TLT - Treasury long-term bonds
USD/JPY - dollar/yen currency pair
USO - crude oil
VIX - fear index


Abbreviations:
  • psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
  • adx - Average Directional Index
  • pps - Person's Proprietary Signal.
  • ma20 - 20-day moving average
  • macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
  • sto - Fast Stochastic


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.
  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.

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