Friday, December 11, 2009

12/11 Morningline

The fear index (VIX) is showing a bear signal this morning on a rising price from the open. A bearish VIX is bullish for stocks.

Otherwise, blue chips (SPY) are in bull mode, and Treasury long bonds (TLT), gold (GLD) and oil (USO) are in bear mode.

In currencies, the dollars per euro (EUR/USD) pair remains in bear mode, and the yen per dollar pair (USD/JPY) is showing a new bull signal on a price rise.

Paper holdings:

Short USD/JPY is a paper holding in my portfolio. I'm closing now (buying back the position), and have done so at 89.44. The basis was 87.82, so the loss is 1.8%

Holdings (with real money; skin in the game):

My covered call (-c9) on UNG, which expires in eight days, remains well above the strike price and will be exercised, most likely. I keep the 0.51 premium on the covered call and lose 0.12 on the shares.

January expiry:

X is hesitating at the top of its large rise three days ago that put it in bull mode, at resistance. My position is a bear call spread (-c40/c41). If the shares break out above resistance, then I'll close.

HPQ, a bull put spread (p49/-p50), remains in bull mode with little price movement.

KO, an iron condor (p50/-p52.5/-c57.5/c60), is in bull mode and continues to trade about a dollar above max profitability.

AET, a bull put spread (p31/-p32), continues to rise in bull mode.

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