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Friday, April 9, 2010

ANF Watch

Abercombie & Fitch Co., ANF, is showing a bull signal on the parabolic SAR after an analyst made nice-talk about the company.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
ANF $48.75

The signal comes after a one-day whipsaw to the bear side, following five days in bull phase, two in bear, and then an extended bull rise.


I'll say up front, this stock breaks my rules in so many ways. It's a move on news, and the chart shows some whippiness. Also, earnings will be announced on May 18, during the life of the May options.

But, the signal is in line with a price-doubling uptrend that began in January, and the average directional index is 58, indicating that it's a very strong trend.

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I could see this as a directional trade, but only if I were hair-trigger about exiting. And I wouldn't necessarily enter it today; it would be prudent to see what happens tomorrow, after traders have had a chance to think on it overnight.

You are here:
  • Reversal
    • $55.83, +14.5%
  • Now $48.75
  • Reversal 
    • $47.00, -3.6%
 Lots of good upside potential. The next highest reversal level dates back to 2008.

This signal will be followed in the daily Watchlist, which is posted beginning around 2:45 p.m. Eastern. Look for it at www.timbovee.com.

Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic
   


About the glance:  The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.


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