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Wednesday, April 7, 2010

4/8 Almanac

On Thursday, April 8: Weekly jobless claims, many speeches

There are nine trading days left before April options expire, 44 the May and 72 the June.

On the jump, market stats, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...

Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $118.36, down 0.6% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 1.3% high to low in a net move down.

Today's extremes: Open $118.80, high $119.36, low  $117.81, close $118.36.

SPY closed traded both above and below the DeMark pivot points but closed within their span.The next DeMark pivots are $117.04/$118.59.

In total, 4 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, up 1 billion from the prior day.


Mediawatch: The Narrative credits not Federal Reserve, not consumer credit, but the Greeks and their debt.

Stephan Bernard and Tim Paradis at AP. Leah Schnurr at Reuters.

This strikes me as being so wrong-headed. Stocks didn't begin to move down until around 3 p.m. Eastern.

Which is 10 p.m. in Athens. The Greeks had eaten, polished of their ouzo and were calling it a night.

It is true that market journalism relies on coincidence to frame its narrative. This is unavoidable because no one really knows why the millions of trading decisions are made each day.

But you've got to have some proximity between the time of the cause and the time of the effect. That's lacking today.

Frowny faces all around!


Market analyst Kenneth Posner creates a new framework for managing extreme risk based on lessons learned in the recent collapse of capitalist finance.

Econ reports:

Weekly jobless claims will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. This tells how many workers are filing new applications for unemployment. It's the quickest indicator of whether business is hiring or laying off.

Natural gas inventories are out at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, with effects mainly felt in the energy sector.

The always popular, often ignored Fed balance sheet and money supply reports are out at 4:30 p.m., after the markets close.

And speeches. Oh, boy do we have speeches. Fed Chairman Bernanke closes the batting order with a speech in Washington at 8:30 p.m. on "Economic Policy: Lessons from History".

But three other Fedians are also taking to the pulpit: Fed Gov. Elizabeth Duke at 8:30 a.m. on the importance of financial education, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Narayana Kocherlakota to the Helena, Montana bourgeoisie at 12:45 p.m., and Fed Vice-Chair Donald Kohn in San Francisco at 4 p.m. on the outlook for the economy.

Possibly none will make headlines, but you can never tell with these folks.

My rules allow trades vertical and calendar spreads, and in unhedged call and put option purchases that expire in June or later. No diagonals or iron condors yet.

My portfolio consists of . . .

April expiry:
  • MCO, covered call, -c29
May expiry:
  • BBY, bull call spread, c44/-c45
  • HPQ, bull call spread, c52.5/-c55
    Dividend shares: AOD, JNK, NLY
     
    Zombie shares: PALM.

    Good trading!

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