Tuesday, April 6, 2010

4/7 Almanac

On Wednesday, April 7: Consumer credit, Bernanke speaks

There are 10 trading days left before April options expire, 45 the May and 73 the June.

On the jump, market stats, mediawatch, rules, econ reports, portfolio and a good book...

Blue chip stocks (SPY) closed the latest regular session at $119.04, up 0.2% from the prior close. During the day SPY traversed 0.8% low to high in a net move up.

Today's extremes: Open $118.42, high $119.25, low  $118.29, close $119.04.

SPY closed traded briefly below but closed within today's DeMark pivot points. The next DeMark pivots are $118.67/$119.63.

In total, 3 billion shares were traded on the three major U.S. stock exchanges, up 1 billion from the prior day.


Mediawatch: Confusion reigns in The Narrative.

Vincent Mao of Investors Business Daily writes that the release of the Fed minutes lifted stocks. Stocks went up before the minutes were released, rose a bit more when they were released, and then fell thereafter. The story is just dead wrong as an overall picture of the market day.

Stephan Bernard and Tim Paradis at AP say correctly that stocks edged up after the minutes release, but fail to say that they took back the entire rise. So an incomplete description gives an entirely false impression

The Wall Street Journal at one point in the day brought back the Greeks as market motivators, much to my joy. I have missed Greeks. They are just a wonderful all-purpose explanation for what the markets do. Also, they bear great gifts. Of which one must beware.

Alas, the Greeks again disappeared, so I am bereft.


Market analyst Kenneth Posner creates a new framework for managing extreme risk based on lessons learned in the recent collapse of capitalist finance.

Econ report:

Oil inventories are out at 10 a.m. Eastern, with effects mainly felt in the energy sector.

The dollar value of consumer credit will be released at 3 p.m. How deep the debt is has a direct impact on how great the spending is.

Also, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers an address in Dallas titled "Economic Challenges: Past, Present and Future". My best guess: No surprises.

My rules allow trades vertical and calendar spreads, and in unhedged call and put option purchases that expire in June or later. No diagonals or iron condors yet.

My portfolio consists of . . .

April expiry:
  • MCO, covered call, -c29
May expiry:
  • HPQ, bull call spread, c52.5/-c55
    Dividend shares: AOD, JNK, NLY
     
    Zombie shares: PALM.

    Good trading!

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