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Monday, April 12, 2010

4/12 Morningline: Indicators

Greek debt crisis over! Markets breathe collective sigh of relief!!

Well, not really. More like a collective "meh", with a shrug.

The euro opened 1.2% above Friday's close in dollar terms (EUR/USD) but rapidly pulled back, traversing 0.9% in the decline, high to low.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
EUR/USD $1.3610

The EU over weekend put in place a mechanism to bail out the Greek economy in order to avoid default on debts. Greece hasn't asked for the aid, but it's there just in case.


The Greek debt crisis has been used by market writers for AP and Reuters for months to explain fluctuations of the U.S. stock market (SPY), bond market (TLT), EUR/USD forex pair, drought, floods and global warming.

So it's important to note that with the crisis well on its way to being resolved, the euro is trading where it was in mid-March, U.S. stocks and bonds were up only slightly. Perhaps it wasn't such a big deal after all.
trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
SPY $119.95
TLT $89.12
At 9:48 a.m. Eastern

TLT showed a new psar bull signal on Monday as its technicals improved.



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Other indicators were trading in Friday's range: gold (GLD), oil (USO), high-yield corporate debt (JNK), emerging markets (EEM) and the dollar-yen currency pair (USD/JPY).


trendadxpsarppsmacdmacd
trend
stosto
trend
VIX 15.54
JNK $39.70
GLD $113.70
USO $41.65
EEM $43.62
USD/JPY ¥93.28
At 9:53 a.m. Eastern

The so-called fear index, the VIX, showed a lower high and lower low for the third straight trading day.

Abbreviations:
psar - Parabolic Stop and Reverse
adx - Average Directional Index
pps - Person's Proprietary Signal
ma20 - 20-day moving average
macd - Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
mfi - Money Flow Index
sto - Fast Stochastic


Exchange-Traded Fund Symbols:
EEM - emerging markets
EUR/USD - euro/dollar currency pair
GLD - gold
JNK - high-yield corporate bonds
SPY - blue-chip stocks
TLT - Treasury long-term bonds
USD/JPY - dollar/yen currency pair
USO - crude oil
VIX - fear index


About the glance: The colors indicate the state of each signal.

  • trend: Determined by the 5-day moving average, green for up, red for down, yellow for sideways
  • adx: orange for above 30-up, blue for 20-down, purple for in the middle. Red is most prone to whipsaws
  • psar, pps, macd: green for bull mode, red for bear
  • sto: green for overbought, red for oversold, yellow for the neutral zone.


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