Monday, October 31, 2016

Tuesday's Prospects

Screening of the Monday, Oct. 31 markets identified 14 prospective trades.

I use four strategies in my trading, in response to trading signals (such as breakouts above the 20-day price channel), high implied options volatility, and persistently rising trends on a charts signaled by the stochastic-relative strength index indicator, and in anticipation of events ( such as earnings announcements).

I'm suspending the price channel analysis today while I bring my market database up to date.

 options  shares 
price channelN/AN/A
earnings26
volatility1N/A
stochastic-rsiN/A5

I shall make final trading decisions on Tuesday, Nov. 1.


Google Analytics Breakthrough: From Zero to Business Impact
by Feras Alhlou, Shiraz Asif and Eric Fettman


Below are the candidates for analysis for each type of analysis.

Monday's Outcomes

I entered one position, an earnings play on PFE using my options volatility approach.

I exited two shares positions using my small lots approach, each for a loss. They were EFTC and MEP. See Monday's Small Lots for details.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 31, 2016


The First Crash: Lessons from the South Sea Bubble
by Richard Dale

Monday's Small Lots

I exited two shares positions using my small lots strategy.


symsharesentry dateexit dateentry price per shareexit price per shareresult $result %annual ratedays helddividendtactic
ETFC710/28/201610/31/201628.6528.15-0.50-1.78%-216%3rsi-20
MEP2310/28/201610/31/20168.898.60-0.29-3.37%-410%3earns

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 31, 2016


Risk-Return Analysis: The Theory and Practice of Rational Investing (Volume One)
by Harry R. Markowitzh et al.


Risk-Return Analysis: The Theory and Practice of Rational Investing (Volume Two)
by Harry R. Markowitzh et al.

PFE Analysis

Update 11/18/2016: PFE reached half of its potential profit and I exited.

Shares declined by 0.7% over 18 days, or a -13% annual rate. The options position produced a 100.0% yield on debit for a +2,028% annual rate

The pharmaceutical house Pfizer Inc. (PFE), headquartered in New York City, publishes earnings on Monday before the opening bell.

[PFE in Wikipedia]

PFE

I shall use the DEC series of options, which trades for the last time !# days hence, on Dec. 16.

Ranges

Implied volatility stands at 26%, which is 1.5 times the VIX, a measure of volatility of the S&P 500 index. PFE’s volatility stands in the 67th percentile of its annual range. The price used for analysis was $31.65.

Ranges implied by options and earnings
WeekSD1 68.2%SD2 95%Earns
Upper34.6237.5932.53
Lower28.6825.7130.78
Gain/loss±$2.97±$5.94±$0.88
Implied volatility 1 and 2 standard deviations; central tendency earns move

The Trade

PFE has been on the decline since Aug. 1; in Elliott wave analysis, a 4th wave sideways movement within a rise since February 2009 that suggests range trading within around $27.50 and $40.


Rescue Your Money: How to Invest Your Money During these Tumultuous Times
by Ric Edelman


Monday's Agenda

PFE continues to qualify as an earnings play using options, and I shall post a full analysis.

None of the earnings plays using shares under my small lots approach qualify for trades under my preferences.

See Monday's Prospects for more.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 31, 2016


The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War
by Robert J. Gordon

Sunday, October 30, 2016

The Week Ahead: Jobs and the Fed

Fresh stats about the employment situation will be poublished Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, with a private payroll company giving a sneak preview with the ADP employment report on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

It is a very busy and significant week in economic reporting, beginning with personal income and outlays on Monday at 8:30 a.m., the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index on Tuesday at 10 a.m. and international trade on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

But the biggest market mover of the week may well be the Federal Open Market Committee announcement on Wednesday at 2 p.m., culminating a two-day session.

The conventional wisdom has been that the Fed will wait until after the elections to raise interest rates. But funnier things have happened, such as the head of the FBI issuing potentially election-altering insinuations about a presidential candidate less than two weeks  before people vote on Nov. 8. Me, I'm placing no bets on interest rates either way.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report, at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Vendor performance, also called the deliveries times index, from the ISM manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Tuesday

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report, at 10 a.m. Thursday.



Book of Value: The Fine Art of Investing Wisely
by Anurag Sharma


Monday's Prospects

Screening of the Friday, Oct. 28 markets identified eight prospective trades.

I use four strategies in my trading, in response to trading signals (such as breakouts above the 20-day price channel), high implied options volatility, and persistently rising trends on a charts signaled by the stochastic-relative strength index indicator, and in anticipation of events ( such as earnings announcements).

The price channel screening will be suspended while I set up the server after a move. I'm skipping the options volatility analysis until the peak of earnings season has passed.

 options  shares 
price channelN/A0
earnings17
volatility0N/A
stochastic-rsiN/A0

I shall make final trading decisions on Monday, Oct. 31.


The Intelligent REIT Investor: How to Build Wealth with Real Estate Investment Trusts
by Stephanie Krewson-Kell and R. Brad Thomas


Below are the candidates for analysis for each type of analysis.

Earns Prospects 10/31-11/4

For the week from Oct. 31 through Nov. 4, there are 1,414 earnings announcements that I consider to be potential trades using shares for my small lots strategy.

Of those, seven have sufficient liquidity for options volatility plays.

The options prospects are:

actionsymearns dateam/mid/pm
10/31PFE11/1am
11/1BABA11/2am
11/1EA11/1pm
11/1GILD11/1pm
11/2FB11/2pm
11/3CBS11/3pm
11/3LVS11/3pm

All potentials, both options and shares, will be subject to further screening on action day.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 31, 2016


Chart Patterns: After the Buy
by Thomas N. Bulkowski

Friday, October 28, 2016

Friday's Outcomes

I made five trades, all of them shares using my small lots approach.

I entered positions on ETF, LNC and MEP.

I exited positions on BANR and MU, each for a loss.

See Friday's Small Lots for details.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 28, 2016


The Business Blockchain: Promise, Practice, and Application of the Next Internet Technology
by William Mougayar

Friday's Small Lots

I'm skipping the Agenda post and going trade to Small Lots. I got the buys and a sell in early and see little prospect for further sells. If that changes, I'll update in the Outcomes post.

I entered three shares positions using my small lots approach.


symsharesentry dateexit dateentry price per shareexit price per shareresult $result %annual ratedays helddividendtactic
ETFC710/28/201628.65rsi-20
LNC510/28/201643.62rsi-80
MEP2310/28/20168.89earns

I exited two positions.


symsharesentry dateexit dateentry price per shareexit price per shareresult $result %annual ratedays helddividendtactic
BANR410/26/201610/28/201645.3244.83-0.49-1.09%-199%2rsi-80
MU1110/26/201610/28/201617.7617.34-0.42-2.42%-442%2rsi-80

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 28, 2016


A Field Guide to Lies: Critical Thinking in the Information Age
by Daniel J. Levitin

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Friday's Prospects

Screening of the Thursday, Oct. 27 markets identified six prospective trades.

I use four strategies in my trading, in response to trading signals (such as breakouts above the 20-day price channel), high implied options volatility, and persistently rising trends on a charts signaled by the stochastic-relative strength index indicator, and in anticipation of events ( such as earnings announcements).

I'm limiting my screening today to earnings and the Stochastic-RSI signals. I'll need to complete set up of my server after moving before I can resume price-channel analysis, and options volatility is moot during earnings season.

 options  shares 
price channelN/AN/A
earnings03
volatilityN/AN/A
stochastic-rsiN/A3

I shall make final trading decisions on Friday, Oct. 28.


The Third Wave: An Entrepreneur’s Vision of the Future
by Steve Case


Below are the candidates for analysis for each type of analysis.

Thursday's Outcomes

I exited three positions, all of them using shares under my small lots approach. They are AM, CRS and SCHN. See Thursday's Small Lots for details.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 27, 2016


Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance
by Angela Duckworth

Thursday's Small Lots

I exited three shares positions under my small lots approach.


symsharesentry dateexit dateentry price per shareexit price per shareresult $result %annual ratedays helddividendtactic
AM710/26/201610/27/201628.9630.701.745.67%2069%1earns
CRS510/26/201610/27/201639.0031.83-7.17-22.53%-8222%1earns
SCHN810/24/201610/27/201623.7323.850.120.50%61%3earns

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 27, 2016


Illusions of Wealth: Actively Manage Your Investments or Expect Losses in this Volatile Economy
by Doug Eberhardt

Thursday's Agenda

My one prospect for the day (Thursday's Prospects) is TWTR, an options play timed to coincide with earnings.

TWTR's implied volatility headed south, from 79% to 62%, the trading day before earnings were published. That movement brought IV down to the 27th percentile of its one year range, well below my minimum requirement of the 50th percentile, disqualifying TWTR from further analysis.

I shall enter no new positions today.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 27, 2016


How to consistently Beat the Market: Zacks Proven Formula for Making 26% a Year for More than Two Decades
by Mitch Zacks

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Thursday's Prospects

Screening of the Wednesday, Oct. 26 markets identified one prospective trades.

I use four strategies in my trading, in response to trading signals (such as breakouts above the 20-day price channel), high implied options volatility, and persistently rising trends on a charts signaled by the stochastic-relative strength index indicator, and in anticipation of events ( such as earnings announcements).

The price channel breakout analysis is on hold while I set up the serve that does the work following a move to a new location. I skipped the volatility analysis because most are blocked from further analysis be earnings announcements  between now and the expected expiration.

 options  shares 
price channelN/AN/A
earnings10
volatilityN/AN/A
stochastic-rsiN/A0

I shall make final trading decisions on Thursday, Oct. 27.


The End of Accounting and the Path Forward for Investors and Managers
by Baruch Lev and Feng Gu


Below are the candidates for analysis for each cell of the quadrant.

Wednesday's Outcomes

No changes from Wednesday's Small Lots. I entered four shares positions: AM, BANR, CRS and MJ. I exited one positions: KKR.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 26, 2016


Sweat Equity: Inside the New Economy of Mind and Body
by Jason Kelly

Wednesday's Small Lots

I entered four shares positions using my small lots strategy.

symsharesentry dateexit dateentry price per shareexit price per shareresult $result %annual ratedays helddividendtactic
AM710/26/201628.96earns
BANR410/26/2016181.28rsi-80
CRS510/26/201639.00earns
MU1110/26/201617.76rsi-80

I exited one position.


symsharesentry dateexit dateentry price per shareexit price per shareresult $result %annual ratedays helddividendtactic
KKR1410/24/201610/26/201614.5315.030.503.33%607%2earns

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 26, 2016


The Curse of Cash
by Kenneth S. Rogoff
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Wednesday's Agenda

All potential earnings plays with sufficient liquidity to support an options play are failing on implied volatility, which is below the 50th percentile of their annual ranges.

I've selected four trades from my list of shares prospects using my small lots strategy.

Two are announcing earnings today and tomorrow, each with high expectations of an upside earnings surprise: AM and CRS.

Two are crossing above the 80% line of the Stochastic-RSI: BANR and MU.

See Wednesday's Prospects for details.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 26, 2016


The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War
by Robert J. Gordon

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Wednesday's Prospects

Screening of the Tuesday, Oct. 25 markets identified nine prospective trades.

I use four strategies in my trading, in response to trading signals (such as breakouts above the 20-day price channel), high implied options volatility, and persistently rising trends on a charts signaled by the stochastic-relative strength index indicator, and in anticipation of events ( such as earnings announcements).

 options  shares 
price channelN/AN/A
earnings07
volatility0N/A
stochastic-rsiN/A2

I shall make final trading decisions on Wednesday, Oct. 26.


Financialisation and the Financial and Economic Crises
by Eckhard Hein et al.


Below are the candidates for analysis for each cell of the quadrant.

Tuesday's Outcomes

I exited my options position on ABT, an earnings play.

I also exited three shares positions using my small lots approach: BAC, INCR and WGP. See Tuesday's Small Lots for details.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 25, 2016


The Big Reset: War on Gold and the Financial Endgame
by Willem Middelkoop

Tuesday's Small Lots

I exited three shares positions using my small lots approach.


symsharesentry dateexit dateentry price per shareexit price per shareresult $result %annual ratedays helddividendtactic
BAC1210/19/201610/25/201616.3716.740.372.21%134%6rsi-80
INCR410/24/201610/25/201647.8546.66-1.19-2.55%-931%1rsi-80
WGP410/21/201610/25/201645.1045.230.130.29%26%4rsi-80

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 25, 2016


Trading Binary Options: Strategies and Tactics
by Abe Cofnas