Thursday, July 31, 2014

Friday's Prospects

Note: I'm traveling in East Asia and to speed processing, I've shortened my universe of stocks for analysis during my journey. I'll return to full operation after Aug. 19.

On Thursday, July 31:

Of 261 large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, 40 symbols broke beyond their 20-day price channels, five to the upside and 35 to the downside.

Two symbols,  AMZN and COP, survived my initial screening, both having broken out to the downside. COP's signal was produced in response to an earnings announcement and will require confirmation under the reset day rules.

I shall do further analysis of the surviving symbols on the weekend of Aug. 2-3.

The next round of earnings began July 8 with the announcement by AA. Under the exclusion rule that forbids me from opening new positions in stocks within 30 days of an earnings announcement, increasing numbers of symbols will be removed from my prospective trades list during initial screening.

Methodology

The symbols in my analytical universe all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks.

I screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

If the odds of success are greater than 50%, I next screen for the absence of an earnings announcement within the next 30 days.

For bear signals, I also screen to ensure the ability to do a trade because of the presence of options with sufficient open interest for the purpose.

I sort by the results in descending order by the average yield on signals in the direction of the breakout in preparation for the second round of analysis after the opening bell.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 31, 2014

References

My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Elliott wave analysis, which I use in my analyses, tracks patterns in price movements. The principal practitioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Traing

Several web sites summarize Elliott wave theory, among them, Investopedia, StockCharts and Wikipedia.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.T

August Schedule

I'll be traveling in East Asia from Aug. 1 through Aug. 19. Here is how my journey will impact the Private Trader schedule.

Aug. 1 and 19 are flying days. I'll produce a prospects list tonight for Aug. 1 but plan no other posts during the day. I won't be posting anything, including a prospects list, on Aug. 19. I'll run all the skipped analysis for those days afterward.

On other days during the period, the prospects list will be posted late afternoon or evening New York time, after the market close.

Given the wide time difference between East Asia and New York, some trades may occur a day later than would on a normal schedule. This fits in nicely with my overall trading method, which has many built-in pauses for confirmation. Trades are also more likely to occur in the middle of the trading day rather than in the last half hour, as is my usual practice.

The biggest change has to do with my analytical universe, which this week was 3,995 stocks and exchange-traded funds. It takes a bit more than eight hours to import the market data for that many shares, run the analytics and produce the reports.

In order to reduce processing time, I'll be limiting my analysis during my travels to 261 large-cap stocks plus a supplemental list of 37 innovative companies that I find particularly interesting. Some of the innovative companies are also large caps, so there is some overlap between the two lists.

References

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.


Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Thursday's Outcomes: AET

I've opened a bear hedge against my longer-term bull position in AET. See the update to my May 12 analysis, "AET: A long-term trade",  for details, including a chart and a discussion.

References

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.


Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Thursday's Prospects: Round 2

Four out of the 11 symbols that survived my first round of analysis failed confirmation, all under the post-earnings "reset day" rule: TWTR, XPO, FARO and BBSI, all having given bull signals. (See "Thursday's Prospects" for a description of the first round of analysis.)

The reset day rule requires a symbol that breaks beyond the 20-day price channel on the first trading day after an earnings announcement to trade, the next day, at a price beyond the extreme of that first day. It's a way of guarding against the emotional overstretch that often accompanies trading immediately after earnings are announced.

Of the others, three have charts that are insufficiently bullish to support their upside breakouts: TYPE, KT and BAH.

Two bear signals have insufficient open interest on their options to support construction of  a bear position: O and WEC.

That left two bear signals, MO and NOV.

Both are liquid, with MO trading north of 7 million shares a day on average, compared to about 3 million for NOV.

Both are high dividend stocks. MO pay 4.67% annualized at today's prices, and NOV pays 2.25%.

Growth estimates imply that MO is going for 35% above its fair price, and NOV is trading for 4% below fair price.

Points in favor of MO are liquidity -- generally, higher volume trumps lower volume, and its over-valuation in terms of growth estimates. For a bear play, I want a stock to be overvalued.

But it is overvalued by only a bit, so it's not an impressive point in MO's favor.

The high dividends argue against both symbols. Dividends support the stock price; that's why companies pay them. For a bear play, the less support the better.

Zacks Investment Research, the service I use to short-cut my fundamental analysis, is neutral on MO and bearish on NOV.

Finally, to the charts. Each has hit a higher high in the past couple of weeks and then fallen. That charts are technically somewhat bearish, although neither on the daily chart has yet to produce the low/lower high/lower low combo that defines a full-bore downtrend.

Just a quick visual analysis of the charts suggests to me that they may well be in continuing uptrends and are likely to reverse back to the upside soon.

Bottom line: I don's like either of these plays, and I don't intend to post a full analysis of either.

By the way, this is a fine illustration of how mixed my methods are. I'm very technical and mathematical down to the end game, but in the final analysis, it really comes down to a feel for the chart and the data.

Good trading is instinct supported by facts and rules. An excellent pattern analyzer, situated between our ears, is the birthright of every human being. Everything I do in my analysis is intended to trigger that innate analyzer into doing its job.

I shall add MO and NOV to my Watchlist to see what happens. If one or both continue to fall, then I'll revisit my decision.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 31, 2014

References

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.


Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. The principal practitioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading

Several web sites summarize Elliott wave theory, among them, Investopedia, StockCharts and Wikipedia.


Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Thursday's Prospects

Note: Inadvertently deleted.

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Wednesday's Outcomes: XLP, DG, GD

I've opened a bear position in XLP. See today's analysis, "XLP: Bearish on consumer staples, redux".

I've closed two positions that were opened early this month after each closed beyond its stop/loss level on Tuesday and continued to trade beyond it today..

I think of them as Tweedledum and Tweedledee because of their mirrored symbols, but in fact, they are:

DG, a bear play. See "DG: Dawn of the bear".

GD, a bull play. See "GD: Bullish on weapons of war".

References

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.


Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

XLP: Bearish on consumer staples, redux

Update 8/11/2014: XLP has moved above the stop/loss point and I've my bear position. The symbol moves over to the Roll Shelf. My practice is not to complete profit and loss until a trade series is complete.

The chart shows that XLP is still in a downtrend from the peak of $45.71 attained on June 19. It has been in a counter-trend rise since Aug. 8.

Click on chart to enlarge.
XLP 2-1/2 years hourly bars
Under Elliott wave analysis, wave 3 {+2} to the upside took four years and 10 months to complete its rise to a major top. The correction so far has lasted only four and a half months. So, it is early days. Not even the degree is certain.

Third waves are notoriously long lived, so I have no expecation that the wae 4 {+2} correction will also last for four years. However, I do anticipate that it will run into the latter half of 2015 at the shortest, and perhaps into 2016 or 2017, depending upon the form that it takes.

If the correction at this degree is taking the form of the pattern Elliott wave analysts call a Zig-Zag, then the present wave 4 to the upside will be followed by a wave 5 decline that will complete wave A {+1} of 4 {+2}. (Remember, the degrees below {+2} are a guess and may be smaller degrees than I've used here.)

If the correction is a Flat, then the Aug. 6 low completes wave a Zig-Zag and is being followed by wave X, a separating wave that in turn will be followed by another corrective pattern.

The correction so far hasn't even reached the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, the shallowest of the most common levels. So if this is the stopping point, it is a very weak correction indeed.

Other common stopping points are the 38.2% level ($37.78), 50%  ($35.33) and 61.8% ($32.88).

There are never any guarantees with Fibonacci retracement points, but these levels are commonly seen.

Bottom line: Bear trend in progress; I've done a jack-rabbit exit under my rules; XLP remains on the Roll Shelf and I'll keep it in sight for a re-entry opportunity.

Update 7/30/2014: I've opened a bear position in XLP, structuring it as a bear put spread, long the $44 puts and short the $42.puts, bought with a debit and expiring in December.

The position has 13:1 leverage.

The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) broke below its 20-day price channel on Tuesday and has confirmed the bear signal by trading still lower today.

The exchange-traded fund peaked in June and has since begun a downward correction that has potential for a significant decline in the next year and over the longer run.

We've played this song before, in an analysis posted last January, when XLP began its first leg down from the peak. That trade was closed in the ensuing second leg, to the upside. The third leg down has greater potential than did the first, so perhaps -- fingers crossed -- third time's a charm.

The Chart

Read enough charts and you'll be struck by their sameness.

Most stocks hit a Great Recession low in late 2008 or early 2009, and many began a new leg up in the ensuing rise sometime in 2010.

The nature of the rise is not always clear and is the subject of great debate among the Elliott wave analytical community. But the facts on the ground are indisputable: Most stocks have been rising for the past four years, and reason suggests that a correction of that rise may have already begun or, best case, can't be far away.

Click on chart to enlarge.
XLP 20 years monthly bars (left), 7 months daily bars (right)
XLP is in the middle wave of the rise from 2009 and in the final wave of that middle wave. In Elliott terms, the rise from the Great Recession low is wave 3 {+3}, and wave 3 {+2} -- the middle wave --began in May 2010. Down one degree, wave 5 {+1} began Feb. 3 from $39.83.

XLP peaked on June 19 at $45.71 and has since lost nearly 4% of its value.

Using Elliott wave analysis, I count the peak as the end of the rise from May 2010 and the three waves that followed the peak as the beginning of  a counter-trend move that initially will correct the rise from Feb. 3 and ultimately, the the rise from March 2010.

It is possible, of course, that what I've labeled as wave 1 {+3} on the 20-year left-hand chart is in fact a 3rd wave of that degree, which would mean that the correction from the June peak will be much greater over time.

In reality, at such a large degree, the timespans involved are so great as to render such distinctions meaningless.

There is no way to say for sure how deep the corrections will be. They often reverse at the major Fibonacci retracement levels: 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%.

A 61.8% retracement of the rise from 2009, the {+3} degree, would bring prices down to $32.31; from 2010, the {+2} degree, down to $32.88; and from February -- the {+1} and lowest degree of the ongoing uptrend -- down to $42.06.

Calculating from the lowest point so far today, $43.94, that analysis suggests roughly 4% downside potential during the nearer term correction of the from February and about 25% during the correction of the rise from 2010 and that from 2009.

Good returns. The last upward wave of  the{+1} lasted for 11 months, and so wave 1 {+1} that began June 19, if it is proportional, will provide a bias toward downward momentum into the summer of 2015.

Odds and Yields

This is the first bear signal since the June 19 peak. That peak, ending an uptrend that began in 2003 and whose most recent major leg up began in 2010, arguably wipes the slate clean insofar as odds analysis goes. The last major downtrend was six months at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009, far to long ago to say anything meaningful about the behavior of XLP in 2014.

The Fund

The list of XLP's top holdings is Procter & Gamble, at 12.75% of assets, followed by Coca-Cola, Philip Morris International, Wal-Mart Stores and CVS Caremark, each in the single digits but greater than 5%.

XLP's expense ratio is 0.16%, compared 0.09% for the most-traded exchange traded fund on the U.S. markets, SPY.

XLP's dividend yield is 2.52% annualized at today's prices, compared to 2.54% for 10-year U.S. Treasury notes.

The stock goes ex-dividend in September for a quarterly payout of 31.12 cents per share.

Liquidity and Volatility

XLP on average trades 8.2 million shares per day and supports a wide selectoin of option strike prices spaced a dollar apart, with open interest runing to three and four figures near the money.

The front-month at-the-money bid/ask spread on puts is 2.1%, compared to 0.3% for SPY.

Implied volatility stands at 13%, compared to 14% for the S&P 500, and has been rising since July 3. XLP's volatility is at the 29th percentile of the one-year range, suggesting that trades structured as long options spreads, bought with a debit, will have the best chance of success.

Options are pricing in confidence that 68.2% of trades will fall between $42.34 and $45.72 over the next month, for a potential gain or loss of 3.9%, and between $43.22 and $44.84 over the next week. I've marked those levels on the left-hand chart in blue.

Contracts today are skewed heavily -- ridiculously so -- toward puts, which are running at 46 times their five-day average volume. Calls are running at 66% above their average.

Decision for My Account

I intend to open a bear position in XLP under my shorter-term rules. I'll make the trade today if downside momentum persists into the half hour before the closing bell. Otherwise, I'll put it on the Watchlist for later consideration.
-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 30, 2014

References

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.


From time to time I use the number 68.2% in using applied volatility to calculate the expected trading range. This comes from statistics and refers to the one standard deviation boundaries, which are expected to contain 68.2% of whatever is being studied. Putting it another way, given an item (a trade or whatever), there is a 68.2% chance that it will appear within those boundaries.

Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. The principal practitioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading

Several web sites summarize Elliott wave theory, among them, Investopedia, StockCharts and Wikipedia.


See my post "Chart Analysis: Nomenclature" for an explanation of my method for labeling waves on the chart.

By preference I place my shorter-term trades in the last half hour before the closing bell in New York. See my essay "When is the best time to trade" for a discussion of the practice.


Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Wednesday's Prospects: Round 2

Half of the 10 symbols that survived my first round of analysis failed confirmation in the second round by moving back within their 20-day price channels. They are UTIW, WYNN, MSTR, TNXP and KMTUY.

(See "Wednesday's Prospects" for a full description of my first round of analysis.)

In addition, two potential bear plays, MW and  ADC, have insufficient open interest on options to allow for creation of a bear position, so they were struck from the list.

That left three possibilities, bear signals from BBRY and the exchange-traded fund XLP and a bull signal from GILD, all from the mid-/large-cap list. All have charts that reflect the direction of breakout, making them reasonable plays.

BBRY, a bear signal, has a bullish rating from Zacks Investment Research, the service I use to short-cut fundamental analysis. I prefer that Zacks and the signal be aligned, so I removed BBRY from contention.

Both GILD and XLP have neutral ratings from Zacks. GILD has more profit-making potential, with implied volatility at 28%. XLP has less, with implied volatility of 13%, about the same as that of the S&P 500.

GILD is a single company in the pharmaceutical sector. XLP is an exchange-traded fund that tracks 41 companies in the consumer staples sector.

That left me with a classic choice: Bull or bear? GILD or XLP? Single company or fund? Higher volatility or lower?

XLP is attractive because of the diversification it brings.

I like GILD for the higher volatility. It is a truism in trading that volatility is the father of risk, and risk is the mother of profit. (Which would make profit the grandchild of volatility? It never pays to examine clichés too closely.)

A quick estimate of the chart suggests that, in Elliott wave terms, XLP on July 11 began the C wave of a downward correction. C waves are quite dynamic, so it is a very bearish chart.

GILD is in a stack of 5th waves of increasing degree, with the longest term that I counted beginning in 2010 at $15.87, one-sixth of the current price. It's a bullish chart, but one that is quite advanced in its rise.

With a chart like GILD's, my bias is toward concluding that the end of the rise is near, and the ensuing correction will be very significant in its magnitude.

I'm going with a possible bear play on XLP under my shorter-term trading rules. I shall post a full analysis prior to the closing bell.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 30, 2014

References

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.


Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. The principal practitioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading

Several web sites summarize Elliott wave theory, among them, Investopedia, StockCharts and Wikipedia.


Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Wednesday's Prospects

On Tuesday, July 29:

Of 3,995 stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, 71 mid- and large-cap symbols that are traded on the major American stock exchanges broke beyond their 20-day price channels, 17 to the upside and 54 to the downside.

Twenty-nine major-exchange small-cap symbols broke out, nine to the upside and 20 to the downside.

Seven over-the-counter symbols broke out, three to the upside and four to the downside.

Seven mid- or large-cap symbols traded on the major exchanges survived my initial screening, three having broken out to the upside and four to the downside. Two of the bull signals were produced in response to earnings announcements and will require confirmation under the reset day rules.

Two small-cap major-exchange symbols survived initial screening, both having broken out to the downside. One signal was produced in response to earnings announcements and will require confirmation under the reset day rules.

One symbol traded over the counter survived my initial screening, both having broken out to the upside. It was produced in response to an earnings announcement and will require confirmation under the reset day rules.

Three large-cap symbols survived screening for inclusion on the supplemental list of high-volume large-cap potential bear plays, having met the earnings exclusion test with sufficient open interest on its options, regardless of historical odds.

I shall do further analysis of the surviving symbols on Wednesday, July 30. 

The next round of earnings began July 8 with the announcement by AA. Under the exclusion rule that forbids me from opening new positions in stocks within 30 days of an earnings announcement, increasing numbers of symbols will be removed from my prospective trades list during initial screening.

First-round survivors: Regular rules

The lists are sorted in descending order by average yield. Regular rules means that confirmation will require trading above the 20-day price channel breakout level.

Potential bull plays

Mid-, large-
cap
GILD
Small-cap

(none)
OTC

(none)

Potential bear plays

Mid-, large-
cap
UTIW
BBRY
MW
XLP
Small-cap

TNXP
OTC

(none)
Large-cap
supplemental
EA
BHI
XLP

First-round survivors: Earnings Reset-day rules

The lists are sorted in descending order by average yield. Rules for a breakout immediately following an earnings announcement require that confirmation on the following trading day, Reset Day, require that the price be beyond the Reset-Day 20-day price channel.

Potential bull plays

Mid-, large-
cap
WYNN
MSTR
Small-cap

(none)
OTC

KMTUY

Potential bear plays

Mid-, large-
cap
(none)
Small-cap

ADC
OTC

(none)
Large-cap
supplemental
(none)

Methodology

The symbols are sorted into three groups and all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks. The groups are:
  • mid- and large-cap stocks as well as selected exchange-traded funds listed on major exchanges,
  • small-cap stocks on major exchanges,
  • mid- and large-cap over-the-counter stocks.
The small-cap group is further selected to ensure a minimum market capitalization of $1 million and a Zacks ranking of neutral or more bullish. (Small-cap stocks rarely have sufficient liquidity to allow a bear trade.)

I then screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

If the odds of success are greater than 50%, I next screen for the absence of an earnings announcement within the next 30 days.

For bear signals, I also screen to ensure the ability to do a trade because of the presence of options.

I sort by the results in descending order by the average yield on signals in the direction of the breakout in preparation for the second round of analysis after the opening bell.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 30, 2014

References

My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. The principal practitioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading

Several web sites summarize Elliott wave theory, among them, Investopedia, StockCharts and Wikipedia.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.T

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Tuesday's Outcomes: MU

MU has closed below its stop/loss level and I'm closing my bull position. See the update, with a chart and discussion, in my April 22 analysis, "MU: Exuberance amid a powerful recovery".

References

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.


Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Tuesday's Prospects: Round 2

Nine symbols from the regular lists survived my first round of analysis, and there was also one surviving symbol on the supplemental list of high-volume potential bear plays.

All have been found wanting and so have failed the second round of analysis.

ONB and RBGLY failed confirmation.

ABAX, KEP, MCY and WYNMF have charts that, at first glance, are insufficiently strong in the direction of the signal. That is, I can tell immediately that I would find it hard to make the appropriate bullish or bearish case were I to do a full chart analysis.

One, VMEM, was a bear signal that lacks sufficient open interest on its options to use in building a bear position.

That left two from the regular charts, GES and ROP, and SDRL from the supplemental chart.

And all three, while confirming their signals, are moving intraday strongly counter to the direction of the signal. I insist on having momentum in the direction of the signal, and none of these are showing it.

So I'm setting them all aside. I don't intend to write an analysis of any of them today.

A full description of my first round of analysis can be found at "Tuesday's Prospects".

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 29, 2014

References

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.


Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Tuesday's Prospects

On Monday, July 28:

Of 3,995 stocks and exchange-traded funds in my analytical universe, 59 mid- and large-cap symbols that are traded on the major American stock exchanges broke beyond their 20-day price channels, 13 to the upside and 46 to the downside.

Thirty-six major-exchange small-cap symbols broke out, two to the upside and 34 to the downside.

Ten over-the-counter symbols broke out, four to the upside and six to the downside.

Six mid- or large-cap symbol traded on the major exchanges survived my initial screening, four having broken out to the upside and two to the downside. Two of the bull signals and one bear signal were produced in response to earnings announcements and will require confirmation under the reset day rules.

One small-cap major-exchange symbol survived initial screening, having broken out to the downside.

Two symbols traded over the counter survived my initial screening, both having broken out to the upside. One was produced in response to an earnings announcement and will require confirmation under the reset day rules.

One large-cap symbol survived screening for inclusion on the supplemental list of high-volume large-cap potential bear plays, having met the earnings exclusion test with sufficient open interest on its options, regardless of historical odds.

I shall do further analysis of the surviving symbols on Tuesday, July 29. 

The next round of earnings began July 8 with the announcement by AA. Under the exclusion rule that forbids me from opening new positions in stocks within 30 days of an earnings announcement, increasing numbers of symbols will be removed from my prospective trades list during initial screening.

First-round survivors: Regular rules

The lists are sorted in descending order by average yield. Regular rules means that confirmation will require trading above the 20-day price channel breakout level.

Potential bull plays

Mid-, large-
cap
ABAX
KEP
Small-cap

(none)
OTC

WYNMF

Potential bear plays

Mid-, large-
cap
GES
Small-cap

VMEM
OTC

(none)
Large-cap
supplemental
SDRL

First-round survivors: Earnings Reset-day rules

The lists are sorted in descending order by average yield. Rules for a breakout immediately following an earnings announcement require that confirmation on the following trading day, Reset Day, require that the price be beyond the Reset-Day 20-day price channel.

Potential bull plays

Mid-, large-
cap
MCY
ROP
Small-cap

(none)
OTC

RBGLY

Potential bear plays

Mid-, large-
cap
ONB
Small-cap

(none)
OTC

(none)
Large-cap
supplemental
(none)

Methodology

The symbols are sorted into three groups and all have analyst coverage through the stock-ranking company Zacks. The groups are:
  • mid- and large-cap stocks as well as selected exchange-traded funds listed on major exchanges,
  • small-cap stocks on major exchanges,
  • mid- and large-cap over-the-counter stocks.
The small-cap group is further selected to ensure a minimum market capitalization of $1 million and a Zacks ranking of neutral or more bullish. (Small-cap stocks rarely have sufficient liquidity to allow a bear trade.)

I then screen the symbols for historical odds of a profitable signal in the direction of the breakout for the past 12 months.

If the odds of success are greater than 50%, I next screen for the absence of an earnings announcement within the next 30 days.

For bear signals, I also screen to ensure the ability to do a trade because of the presence of options.

I sort by the results in descending order by the average yield on signals in the direction of the breakout in preparation for the second round of analysis after the opening bell.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 29, 2014

References

My trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.

Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. The principal practitioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading

Several web sites summarize Elliott wave theory, among them, Investopedia, StockCharts and Wikipedia.

Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decision decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.T

Monday, July 28, 2014

Monday's Outcomes: LYB

I've opened a bull position in LYB under my longer-term rules, which require that I hold it for at least a year in order to qualify for long-term capital gains. See today's analysis, "LYB: A tale of redemption".

References

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.


Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

LYB: A tale of redemption

Update 9/9/2015: I've exited my position in LYB for a small loss. i got out because my position was too low for covered calls, and I didn't want to commit sufficient funds to bring the position up to the full 100 shares.

Shares declined by 36.1% over 408 days, or a -32% annual rate. The shares, a hedge and dividends produced a -2.0% loss on debit, for a -2% annual rate.

Update 12/1/2014: I was unable to structure a new hedge on LYB because of unfavorable open interest distribution and a resulting overly high risk/reward ratio. I'll keep working on the problem and, with luck, eventually succeed.

Update 11/22/2014: My LYB bear hedge expired out-of-the-money on Nov. 22 for maximum (100%) yield on debit. I'll put off calculating yield or loss until the LYB series is complete.

LYB shares remain below the 12-month moving average, and I shall attempt to roll forward into a new position on Monday, Nov. 24.

Update 10/13/2014: LYB has completed wave 3 and has moved into a wave 4 counter-trend correction, closing below the 55-day price channel. I've opened a bearish hedge on my bull position to mitigate the losses.

Implied volatility stands at its high-point for the year, so I've structured the hedge as a bear call spread, short the $97.50 calls and long the $100 calls, sold for a credit and expiring Nov. 21. There is a likelihood, in my opinion, that implied volatility will fall after earnings are announced on Oct. 24. The position has 4.5:1 leverage and the short calls have an 80% chance of expiring out of the money.

Update 7/28/2014: LYB continued to rise until two hours before the closing bell, hitting a high of $109.91. That was sufficient momentum for me to open a bull position under my longer-term rules, structured as long shares. 

LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) is proof that sometimes Chapter 11 bankruptcy can be the best thing that ever happened to a company. It forces reform, it erases past mistakes and it gives the company a new birth.

So it is with LyondellBasell Industries, and its chart since the company emerged from Chapter 11 tells a tale of corporate redemption.

The Chart

LYB has a short history, having begun trading under its present symbol only since emerging from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in April 2010.

After hitting a low a few months later in July 2010, it joined the rest of the market in launching itself into an uptrend that has so far multiplied the price nearly 10-fold.

Click on chart to enlarge.
LYB 5 years weekly bars
The most recent leg up began in June 2012 from $35.97. The price hit a higher high today of $108.79.

The most straightforward Elliott wave analysis puts LYB in a series of third waves, the highest degree, {+2}, having begun in 2010 and the smallest, {-1}, having begun in April 2013 from 458.20.

An interpolated count from the S&P 500 for the period prior to LYB's resumption of trading in 2010 would put LYB in third waves at the {+3} and {+4} degrees, as well.

That's a lot of potential upside momentum.

Odds and Yields

LYB has completed eight bull signals since wave 3 {+1} began in June 2012. Six were successful, on avferage yielding 8.7% over 61 days. The two unsuccessful signals lost 3.6% over 17 days, on average.

The win/lose yield spread is a quite respectable 5.1%.

The Company

LyondellBasell Industries is a global chemical company based in Houston, Texas, with manufacturing operations at 58 sites in 18 countries. It maintains a European headquarters in Rotterdam, The Netherlands, and an Asian headquarters in Hong Kong.

Analysts are positive about LyondellBasell's prospects, collectively coming down with a 43% enthusiasm rating.

The company reports return on equity of 32%, with debt at 57% of equity.

The earnings yield is 6.39%, compared to a 2.49% yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes. The company pays a dividend yielding 2.58% annualized at today's prices.

Growth estimates and the dividend imply a "fair" price of $96.75, suggesting that the stock is overpriced by 12.34%. I've marked the growth-implied price on the chart in purple.

Earnings  have been zig-zagging higher for the past three years. They've surprised to the downside five times in that period, most recently in the 1st quarter of the current year. The other quarters have all produced upside surprises.

The stock is selling for 16 times earnings, and also at a small premium to sales. It takes $1.27 in shares to control a dollar in sales.

LyondellBasell next publishes earnings on Feb. 4, 2015. I've been unable to find an ex-dividend date but it will be either soon or in October. The last quarterly payouts was 70 cents per share.

Liquidity and Volatility

LYB on average trades 2.5 million shares per day and supports a wide selection of optoin strike prices spaced $2.50 and $5 apart, with open interest running to three and four figures.

The front-month at-the-money bid/ask spread on calls is 11.1%, compared to 0.6% for the most-traded symbol on the U.S. markets, the exchange-traded fund SPY.

Implied volatility stands at 19%, compared to 13% for the S&P 500, and has been zig-zagging downward since peaking at 30% in October 2013. It is up from its lowest low of the year, 17%, attained last May.

The volatility level is at the 18th percentile of its one-year range, suggesting that the most successful options strategy would be long vertical spreads bought with a debit.

Options are pricing in confidence that 68.25 of trades will fall between$102.87 and $115.01 over the next month, for a potential gain or loss of 5.6%, and between $106.02 and $111.86 over the next week.

I've marked the month range on the chart in blue.

Contracts today are skewed heavily toward calls, which are running at 4-1/2 times their five-day average volume. Calls are running at 48% below their average volume.

Decision for My Account

I like LYB as a potential bull play, mainly because of its Elliott wave placement in a series of third waves. That gives the price room to run further to the upside.

The 11% bid/ask spread on options is a bit wider than I like. I prefer spreads in the single digits. I do very much like the dividend yield in excess of 2.5%.

The best way to avoid the wide bid/ask spread and take advantage of the dividend is to open a bull position under my longer-term rules, wherein I buy shares and hold them for a year, hedging with options during downturns as it becomes necessary.

Using my longer-term rules, I intend to buy shares in the half hour prior to the closing bell, if LYB continues to show upward momentum. If it falters, then I'll add it to Watchlist for later consideration.

-- Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 28, 2014

References

My shorter-term trading rules can be read here. My longer-term trading rules can be read here. And the classic Turtle Trading rules on which my rules are based can be read here.


From time to time I use the number 68.2% in using applied volatility to calculate the expected trading range. This comes from statistics and refers to the one standard deviation boundaries, which are expected to contain 68.2% of whatever is being studied. Putting it another way, given an item (a trade or whatever), there is a 68.2% chance that it will appear within those boundaries.

Elliott wave analysis tracks patterns in price movements. The principal practitioner of Elliott wave analysis is Robert Prechter at Elliott Wave International. His book, Elliott Wave Principle, is a must-read for people interested in this form of analysis, as is his most recent publication, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading

Several web sites summarize Elliott wave theory, among them, Investopedia, StockCharts and Wikipedia.


See my post "Chart Analysis: Nomenclature" for an explanation of my method for labeling waves on the chart.

By preference I place my shorter-term trades in the last half hour before the closing bell in New York. See my essay "When is the best time to trade" for a discussion of the practice.


Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.